Wednesday, 3 July 2013

Statistical Forecasting

Introduction

There are many uses for forecasting. Every industry has a need to predict the “unknown” whether it be in production,manufacturing, retail,or service industry. Forecasting helps management plan for the future,whether it be in the short- range plans or long-range

-  Manufacturing Firms – To forecast Demand
-  Service Organizations – To forecast Customer arrival patterns
-  Financial Analysts – To forecast revenues & profits
-  Investors – To forecast economic indicators


Objective

On completion of the Program, participants will be able to :

-  Formulate various Forecasting Models
-  Determine future supply, demand, pricing, sales, or some other
   variables of interest
-  Determine the strength of the predicted model
-  Track Signal in Forecasting


Methodology

Lecture, Workshop Activities, Discussion & Excel based Calculations


Course content

1. Types of Forecasting both Qualitative and Quantitative

2. Quantitative models using Time Series Forecasting

-  3-point Moving Average
-  3-point Weighted Moving Average
-  Exponential Smoothing
-  Adjusted Exponential Smoothing
-  Classical Decomposition

3. Quantitative Models using Regressions or Causal Forecasting

4. Tracking Signal Tool used to monitor the effectiveness of    forecasting method


Target Audience

-  Production Manager / Executive
-  Factory Manager / Finance Manager
-  Operations Manager/Executive/Officer
-  Production & Material Planner / Executive/ Supervisor
-  Sales / Marketing Manager

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