Statistical Forecasting

Introduction

There are many uses for forecasting. Every industry has a need to predict the “unknown” whether it be in production, manufacturing, retail, or service industry. Forecasting helps management plan for the future, whether it be in the short- range plans or long-range

-  Manufacturing Firms – To forecast Demand

-  Service Organizations – To forecast Customer arrival patterns

-  Financial Analysts – To forecast revenues & profits

-  Investors – To forecast economic indicators

Objective

On completion of the Program, participants will be able to :

-  Formulate various Forecasting Models

-  Determine future supply, demand, pricing, sales, or some other

   variables of interest

-  Determine the strength of the predicted model

-  Track Signal in Forecasting

Methodology

Lecture, Workshop Activities, Discussion & Excel based Calculations

Course Content

1. Types of Forecasting both Qualitative and Quantitative

2. Quantitative models using Time Series Forecasting

-  3-point Moving Average

-  3-point Weighted Moving Average

-  Exponential Smoothing

-  Adjusted Exponential Smoothing

-  Classical Decomposition

3. Quantitative Models using Regressions or Causal Forecasting

4. Tracking Signal Tool used to monitor the effectiveness of forecasting method

Target Audience

-  Production Manager / Executive

-  Factory Manager / Finance Manager

-  Operations Manager/Executive/Officer

-  Production & Material Planner / Executive/ Supervisor

-  Sales / Marketing Manager